Whew. What a storm.

Too bad it missed us.

This is a very short blog, but need your help. What do you want to see a blog about?

Any ideas?

Surface trends?

Another forecast?

LRC discussion?

Upcoming SPC workshop? [yes, I am going]

KC media weather accuracy?

What do you think? Leave me a note and let me know. I will keep anonymous comments open.

Upcoming Week

Lets review from Jan 1st regarding this upcoming week.

"Last, but not least...our most active part of the cycle kicks up around the 24th...this will last for about 10 days. Expect signifcant snowfall in this time frame. While it may start as rain for a day or two, expect a plunge of colder air. This will bring some signficant accumulations to the area."

The rain will be associated to the Monday night/Tues morning storm. It will be still too warm. Behind this storm lagging behind is the cold air will drop down bringing us back into the seasonal cold air.

We will see about signficant accumulations, but I am still favoring the Feb 2-3rd storm for this.

The trends would indicate it should be cold enough.

I will be happy when this part of the cycle is over. It is the easiest, but most hyped part of the cycle..it makes it harder to forecast with the precision that is expected. I prefer the zonal part. Less pressure, but still there are some nice signatures there as well.

I am very curious how I will do with my extended forecast. I hope to learn alot.

Where are we at? And Longwaves

First - lets see where we are at based on my mid Jan/early Feb forecast. Reference the above links in the blog.

First cold streak. Hit.

Missed warm up on 24th. It is starting today and will go through Sunday. Bit of a glitch on timing, hit the trend.

Moderate precip on 24th. Miss. Strong front with polar air - no moisture.

Minor precip on 25th. Hit.

Lets watch the next week..should be fun, then I will do a side by side comparison of forecast vs. actual. I think many will be suprised.

Ok..longwaves. Long who?

Longwaves have been explained to me to mean the consistent trough axis point within the CONUS for a given pattern used by the LRC. Huh?

Basically, it is the point where storms will round a given trough. Gives a sense of where they will turn, mature, or morph as we have seen this year with the phasing.

So, I am expecting the longwaves as defined by the LRC to be connected to the storm paths disclosed earlier this year.

Here is what I don't understand. The LRC indicated there were three storm paths this year, right? How is it that this can be true based on that?

January 24th - KSHB weather blog - " The heaviest snow kept falling in the same spots just north and west of Kansas City, which is another characteristic of each year's LRC"

Three tracks - one track. Am I the only one confused? Look at the NWS site.

Is this the LRC or just a seasonal norm as it relates to the above statement for the storm paths?

Anyway...maybe I will understand how the LRC works someday. I do understand and believe in a cycle, just not all the parameters built into the LRC.

I might just stick with surface trending. Seems simpler to me.

I am just a simple guy. LOL

Random LRC thought

From KSHB two days ago...

"We are not saying that the storms are on a 52 day or a 54 day cycle. We just are confident that it is roughly a 54 day cycle give or take a few days either way. The cycle, in past years is not always perfect, but it has been shown to be close. It could be 51 days, or it could be 57 days."

51 to 57 days.

7 day variance.

Figuring a pattern to move roughly 15 mph, 7 days would equate to 1260 miles from the middle point of 54 or a total of 2520 mile variance as it relates to this current evaulation.

Seems like alot of distance

From KSHB today

"Does this sound familiar? A series of storm systems in October, then 54 days later a series of storm systems in December, and then 54 days later a series of storm systems in late January and February. "


I am still clearly lost on how the cycle is to be communicated. I understand the variance regarding the mechanics, but am lost how when the models do not match- variance is introduced, and when the models do match, the cycle becomes more precise.

Just me..but I am lost on how, when, or why a cycle would change that quickly or with so much variance.

Here is another large scale pattern we are aware of. The earth going around the moon. 365 days most of the time.

Do we introduce 13% variance into this cycle?

I am not questioning the recurring cycle regarding the weather. I believe it to be true. I am questioning how it is interpreted and communicated. I will accept some variance in the cycle, but it made up three days in the cycle of the span of a two days.

Huh?

This is an example why I don't adjust my forecasts. Too much tweaking will make it more difficult to follow and will introduce doubt to the principle of how it is evaluated.

I will just prefer to miss a forecast than have people confused as how I came up with it.

Again, just my thoughts..and best of all....

My blog.

Next blog will focus on some thoughts I have regarding longwaves as it pertains to the LRC.

Food for thought

As seen for those that have been following along, the surface trend analysis seems to be doing well. I think as we are seeing now there is some variability with the cycle, but even with that - I am not going to change my forecast.

I think there is a danger to over tweaking long range forecasts. While I try to get pretty specific, I will miss because of that at times. I think while there may be variability, it does tend to even out and snap back. Those that over tweak will lose credibility because of this. I will stand by the misses as well as the hits. For those seeking trends, I am dead on so far.

Take the warm spell I am forecasting. I think it may show up a few days later than I thought. It is within range of the prior cycle trends, but toward the end of the matches. So for that, it is my interpretation that is skewed, not the cycle itself.

Things are starting to show on the long range, but it is still way too early. Lets look again in about a week.

I will continue with this method of analysis. Perhaps it needs a snappy acronym? What do you think?

LOL

Also..I have opened up anonymous comments now. Lets see how it goes.

Next entry, I plan on getting more specific again with the analysis based on what we are watching. In the next blogs, I will show how the trends go back to August. I will show more examples.

Later gaters.

Still on target

Quite a last week, huh? First test - passed.

Below is some comments to the first storm


If you look out right now, long range..you see the trough forming in the west, and watch it spit energy our way until it moves out ejecting toward the midwest. As we get a bit closer, I will post some images, but the beyond 84 hrs at the time of this post, it is still not quite right yet.

Pretty cool, huh? Everything is showing up correctly.

Tonight's storm

Holy cow! Not only is there strong evidence of the Lezak Recurring Cycle at work, but also that there is a very strong likelihood that my surface based method as it relates to cycle analysis is on point.

Here was my blog entry for today's date on January 1st, or 17 days ago. It is critical to mention how long back to dispell any thoughts I could have used model data.

http://kcwx.blogspot.com/2008/01/happy-new-year-updated-january-forecast.html

"Jan 17th and 18th looks like a snow storm. It should be very cool and with the trend of moderate precip in this part of the cycle, perhaps 4-8 inches around the metro is possible. We will have to keep an eye on this one as it gets closer, and I will provide more detailed updates."


This part in November did not yield alot of moisture, but it was a somewhat meaningful storm span, as it was in this period that ended the dry spell that spanned many days.

If you choose to go back a prior cycle to October 2nd, it yielded .78 inches. And should you even want to go one more back, August 8th had .86 inches. All within one day of the 54 day cycle.

People wonder how I could come up with 4-8 inches of snow 17 days in advance. Just blend the trends. Look at about .5 - .9 inches...apply as standard snow ratio of 8:1 or 10:1, and because of the tendacy of the longwave, I took 8:1 thinking there may be some warmer air... .5-.9 at 8:1 = 4-7.2 inches. 4-8 inches was my forecast for this storm for the area

I have done this type of analysis for my most recent forecasts below on this page.

One last note: And I will bold and cap this for emphasis:

IN DOING MY SURFACE BASED ANALYSIS, I ONLY TAKE ACTUAL EVENT DATA AS RECORDED AT KCI BY THE NWS. I DO NOT USE MAPS OR MODELS OF ANY KIND IN THIS ANALYSIS.

I did not look at one 500mb map. This is much different than how I have seen the evidence of the LRC presented. I do not look to the upper levels one iota. Just the surface. That said, is there a connection from surface to the upper levels, yes. But the method of determining the cycle, the method of forecasting based on that data, and how it is communicated is much different.

Yet, it leads to the same cycle duration. For those with some time to burn, here is another entry of when I found the cycle this year. Here is a hint...it was long before mid December.

http://kcwx.blogspot.com/2007/12/what-is-in-number-cycle.html

Why can I see it sooner? In August and September, the 500mb flow is very weak. It is hard to find any real discernable trends or entities to track. It is October and November that they are much easier to see as the jet strengthens and heads south. It is only in December and January can you see a cycle per the LRC.

Why wait that long? Just because you cannot see it in the upper atmosphere does not mean it is not there. Temp trends both warm and cold and precip trends are evident much earlier.

Lets watch the next month or so to see how good or bad of a method this really is.

So far so good.

Long Range forecast based on surface trends

In strongly believing that there is a cycle to our weather pattern this year; and in strongly asserting that it is defined and right at about 54 days, it has been suggested by critics to run out the forecast into Summer since it is already defined, right?

Yes and no. Yes, I can run out the trends for precipitation and for temperatures, but what is going to be difficult is to forecast the sensible weather impact intensity. I will try to take this into account based on normal seasonal climatology, try to give this a whirl. I have never tried to do this so far out…so as usual – out on a limb.

In taking on this task, I am aware of the high likelihood of falling into the trap of the critics. If I miss some, it will be “see, there is no cycle!”. I accept that with the caveat in response that while the cycle is intact, my analysis of it may be skewed in this type of long range forecasting.

I will take full credit and blame for each hit and miss. So, the next question is how to provide enough detail yet enough wiggle room to provide for seasonable variability.

Because the cycle is about 54 days, when short term – long range forecasting, say a month out, I can account for some cycle variability with a day or two spread on dates. How do I do this for going 60 days out? Two weeks either way? No…then it is attributed to luck and randomness. How to do this?

I am going to try to give trends based on the trend I see within two days and try to give as much detail as I can and guess how it would be at that time within its season. I will try to provide specific storm dates where possible for the strongest signals, and a range for the weaker signals.

Hope this is good enough. If not, I will take suggestions how to better do this.

So without further ado – here we go. One last thought – I am going to go into a lot of detail on the pattern and the setups, so pack a lunch – this is going to be a very long and detailed blog entry.

The best way to start this long range forecast is to explain some of its properties. Throughout this synopsis, I am going to be borrowing some features of the Lezak Recurring Cycle theory as well as my surface trending analysis.

This year’s cycle is about 54 days long. It is comprised of two distinct phases of upper air flow as it relates to the CONUS. I made mention of this in my earlier blogs in November. You have an amplified phase and a zonal phase. The amplified phase is far more active for this area.

Let’s talk more about the amplified flow. In my cycle analysis, I see this flow to last about 20 or so days in the cycle. It has two components. The first is a dominating trough that drops deep into the central CONUS bringing ample Canadian cold air. The trend this year is for it to be cold, but somewhat shallow. I expect this to continue. I think the deepest we will see this is from the 700mb level down. While cold – not too deep. This was evident in our December ice storms. The second component of this amplified flow is after the initial blast of cold air, we find substantial troughing in the western CONUS. In several runs, this type of set up cutoff or nearly cutoff from the main flow. This part of the cycle brings us about a week of storminess until the trough moves out.

Ok..so here are the forecasting triggers I focus on within the amplified flow:

1. Blast of cold air. Prevalent but not deep.
2. Cold air in place ahead of western troughing.
3. Western troughing brings a week of precipitation.
4. Moisture comes from Northern Pacific with central troughing and from the baja in the western troughing. Gulf moisture present on a storm basis as it relates to pre frontal moisture return ahead of each storm – but not main mechanism of moisture.
5. A characteristic of the western trough is for it to stall or slow down greatly and throw bits of vorticity to our area. This correlates to the week of precipitation we receive.
6. The central troughing brings more of a NW clipper type of storm through the area. The western troughing brings more of a SW oriented storm through the area.

These are some of the main features of this part of the cycle. Below are the dates and trending of this part of the cycle

The other part of the cycle is the zonal flow. This flow has an interesting aspect that has evolved. There is a strong southern stream that has evolved to support this. What becomes interesting is the interaction between the northern and the southern stream and its phasing aspect. Based on what has been observed this year, it seems many of the surface lows are establishing on the southern stream along the main upper level low in the northern stream. There is a connection.

Below are some forecasting triggers I focus on with the zonal flow:

1. Many of these vorts are digging to about Joplin, Missouri heading due NE and phasing with the northern stream around Wisconsin. This is putting areas N and NW of Kansas City more regularly in the comma head of these storms.
2. Areas to the SE are getting dry slotted and are on the warm side of these 850mb maxes. They are getting nice rain on the front, but little cold air and snow on the backside. This will be important to watch in Spring. This may favor warm quadrant thunderstorms. Triple points should be in the area.
3. Moisture is not as abundant but does have a bit more chance to get some Gulf moisture based on the southern stream.
4. Events are short term with this progressive flow. Do not expect long duration events.
5. This phase of the cycle has been active because of the southern branch interaction.

Early in the season this was absent leaving us in a dry streak in November. I could see this happening again toward summer as the jet retreats to a similar position. But until then, this part of the cycle will bring some fun as well.

These are some of the main features of this part of the cycle. Below are the dates and trending of this part of the cycle

Ok…so I have showed the two phases and their characteristics and the spans I expect them to play out through the rest of forecast duration. I have not shared the specific precipitation, warm, and cold trends. I will use this information in conjunction with the phase analysis to put together a month to month forecast.

I will start with February and March.

February: -

Note: All precipitation amounts are figured in liquid. If cold enough, factor 10:1 as average to convert to snow.

The first week in February will be quite busy. As shown above, this first week will occur in the last week of the amplified flow. I expect to see the western troughing to swing through the area or just south. I expect this week to be below normal in temperatures with some days bitterly cold. With a fresh snow pack and a reinforced polar push, it will be very much as winter should be. Expect temperatures to be 5-10 degrees below mean temperature if not more due to the snow pack.

Expect precipitation of Feb 2nd and again on Feb 6th/7th. On the 2nd, trending shows a trend for heavy precipitation. I would expect to see between 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid moisture possible. If snow, expect a major snow storm to hit the region. Based on temperature trends, I expect it to be snow. The only wild card is if the precipitation comes through more frontal which may lead to potential icing. I am going for 80% likelihood of snow. The 6th/7th shows a looser match, but still for light to moderate precipitation. Expect .25-.40 inches possible of liquid precipitation. After this week, I would not be surprised to see 6-12 inches of snow on the ground in the region.

The second week of February looks to warm to normal conditions early leading into a more pronounced warm up from the 10th-14th. Expect to see a front on the 14th bringing light precipitation in the area. Expect roughly .25 in of liquid. Likely this will be snow, but I am not ruling out light rain as well. Following this storm, look for something on the 18th/20th. This could bring more of a mix to snow with amounts of liquid precipitation being up to a quarter inch. This storm will bring another push of Canadian air dropping us again under average temperatures.

Otherwise, the third week of February keeps us cool but dry. We will experience cooler than normal temperatures until the 24th where we begin to warm up again.

The fourth week of February looks to transition from the cooler air to warmer air. Look to end February on a warm up into March. Expect mean temps 5-10 degrees above normal. All in all, February will go on the books as very wet and colder than normal.

March:

The first week of March will carry on the warm trend of 5-10 degrees above mean. Expect the first storm between the 5th and 7th. Temperatures right before the front will be very warm. I would not be surprised to see mean temperatures 15-25 degrees above mean. This means we could get in the 80s. As the front passes, expect potential thunderstorms and a potential of severe weather. The temperature gradient with this storm looks potent. Looks to be enough precipitation available per the trend to give half an inch. Following this front, expect the second week to drop 5-10 degrees below mean.

The second week of March will bring a quick shortwave through around the 11th. Expect precipitation to be light based on location and the progressive nature of the storm. Expect temps to be cooler than mean for the early part of the week warming up toward the end.

The third week of March brings one of the stronger matches for a storm on March 19th. Expect this storm to pack a punch. This will be another potential for severe weather. Expect half an inch to an inch of rain, quick moving, but having a large temperature gradient. Warm up a day or two before the storm will enhance the convective potential. This will align with a powerful cold front. The air behind the front will bring very cool air below normal mean temperatures.

The forth week will be soggy. Expect several days of rain. Temps will be cool and vorts swinging through will give a feel of uneasiness regarding thunderstorms. While severe potential is not evident through regular frontogenesis, forcing will be available with a very active vorticity stream from the SW. Will have to keep an eye on this. Expect temps to swing a bit as each storm comes through, but temps will average below mean norms.

I am going to stop at March for now. If I am wrong on the trend above, there is not much point in going forward. Should February pan out, I will take this through April and May.

I hope this is enough detail. I have tried to be as specific as possible, but for that work, I will expect a day or two here and there as part of this effort. This variance should be the exception and not the rule.

I hope you will watch this with me to see if this carries weight. If not, then I am no different than many trying to figure out a way to be better in long range forecasting. If right…hold on to your hats!

All of this was done without looking at one map. All based on trending. While I support and believe in the Lezak Recurring Cycle, I think this method mirrors the LRC, just from the surface. It is a completely different method of analysis, but uses the same overreaching principles. If this validates, I believe it also validates the LRC. The only thing that would be different in the LRC is when the cycle starts. That is topic for another discussion at a later time.

Let me know what you think!

Long Range outlook Jan/Feb

Let's see if I can put my money where my mouth is. I will find out one of three things in doing this.

1. The surface based method of cycle forecasting is hosed
2. The cycle is in place but my interpretation is hosed
3. I nail this and prove that this thing works.

This leaves me with a .333 shot of success. Such is life in forecasting. Those are hall of fame numbers in baseball, so I will take a shot.

I think as I observe how others are trying to learn or critique the concept of a cycle, many are getting confused based on how it is explained. I have tried to clear it up with my method, but even am leaving a bit to be desired at times. That said, I will go KISS. Keep it simple, stupid.

So...I created a visual graphic. Its crude as my tools for this type of thing suck..so bare with me.

Below is what I think will happen starting January 14th through February 10th. I tried to be as specific as I could without using any maps or other model. This is simply using the surface trending data.



[click picture to enlarge]

As we get closer to the events, I can get more detailed as to how/when/how much is going to happen, but for those days in dark green, there is a strong match in liklihood of not only precipitation, but quite a bit of it. That in lighter green is less precip and more of a chance of precip.

I believe if this pans out, you will see how the upper air matches this trend.

Ok..out on a limb...hope I don't fall.

Another trend to mirror

Let’s do another mirror exercise to further look at how the surface trends mirror the upper atmosphere.

This time, let’s pick a dominant warming trend.


Let’s focus on the most consistent part in the middle of the trend.

Sept 18 – 20
Nov 11-13
Jan 4-6

The mean temp above normal for these days were the following respectively.

10.1
10.0
18.6

Let’s look at the map for Sept 20th, Nov 13th and Jan 6th.


http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/MAPS.html

Look at the 500 vort maps..am I the only one seeing the similarities? Look at the 850s for that day.

Ridging ahead of a building trough?

Later in the week..I will show yet another cycling trend…

Do you see it?

Mirroring LRC with surface trends

Here we go...I am going to take a stab at this.

I have blogged until I am blue about the surface trending that allowed me to see this year's 54 cycle in early September.

Well..now I am going to begin showing key trends as it relates to upper level maps. I am hoping I can illistrate two things.

1. The upper level maps support my surface trends. Both in sync, I believe this gives greater evidence of a recurring cycle.

2. I want to show how even prior to October, the surface and the upper level map trends occured. I want to debunk the Lezak Recurring Cycle principle that says the cycle starts between October and November.

So, I am going to pick one of the dominant features I have seen in this cycle. It is a persistent cold streak that shows up between the following dates.

Sept 10-16th

Nov 1-7th

Dec 27-Jan 2nd

If you look at each of these periods, they fall within +/- 2 days of the 54 day cycle. So far each of these streaks are 7 days.

Based on KMCI NWS data, below is the respective mean deviation for each of these 7 days.

-5.4 F

-5.0 F

-5.1 F

Also for each of these streaks, the coldest day was almost all identical to the second to last or the actual last day of the streak.

Ok..that said, lets bring up the maps for just one related day through the cold streak. I have randomly picked the following near the beginning of each of these streaks.

Sept 11th, Nov 3rd, and Dec. 27th. 0 -53-54 days apart.

I have explained the surface trend above for each of these dates, here are the maps with some similar features.

Sept 11th

Notice the illistrated features. Based on upper wind direction in the west, you can see a weakly formed cyclone. Next, you see an upper level low in S. Canada with a trough axis nearly due south. Last, you see a thickness dip off the east coast indicated by the red line.

Next is Nov. 3rd.

Again, notice the cyclone in the west a bit stonger this time, the trough from the ULL with a similar axis down from Canada, and the stronger ULL off the east coast.

Last is Dec. 27th.

This time, a much stronger upper level low in the west, still a trough from Canada with the axis nearly the same, and again a ULL off the east coast.

Are all the maps the same? No. The jet strengthening throughout the cycle and dropping further south changes the strength of each of these features. This is my main complaint about the LRC. Just in this analysis, its tough to really see. But, mix in the surface observations, the surface trends...now you have something a bit more tangible.

Ultimately, you would want to loop 7 days together for each of these durations and watch the flow of the maps. Only then will you really see it in the upper level maps.

Let me know your thoughts on this...does this help illistrate the cycle? I will do a few more of these with other prominent surface trends...

I think you will see it.

Happy New Year- Updated January forecast

2007 has been quite a year and honestly...I am glad it's over. I am looking forward to what 2008 may bring.

I hope everyone took time to recharge, spend time with family and friends, and get ready for what I believe will be a wild weather season into August.

I have been working on specific data collection to reinforce my surface concept that enabled me to identify this year's cycle in September. For those that don't remember or read regularly, I assert that there is a cycle in our atmosphere that allows itself to be discovered and used for long range forecasting.

Gary Lezak - Chief Meteorlogist of KSHB - Kansas City uses a similar cycle. He notes it as the Lezak Recurring Cycle, or LRC for short. He uses upper air maps to trend longwaves and large scale entities. He believes the cycle starts in Oct-Nov. I have shown otherwise. I understand why he finds this as that is when the jet is strong enough to review patterns, but I have seen these patterns at the surface long before the upper air showed it clearly.

So what does this mean? I have been recording each day's weather from Aug. 1st on for this year. I have seen pattern ties all the way back to that date..and maybe further back. I haven't looked. I am able to see relationships and trend warm, cold, and precipitation trends for this year's cycle that seem to match.

I have shown the data to both meteorlogists and non-meteorologist. Both can see the trend and potential of its merit.

This is one of my New Year's resolutions. Continue trending this cycle...verify if it is what I think it is. In additon, I want to compare it to that of the LRC. Since we both found the same cycle, I expect they can be used together.

This said, I expect that I will be able to more accurately predict cold, warm and precipitation dates weeks, if not months in advance. When I say trend, I am talking within a few days of being accurate. Further research will allow me to ties these events to particular storms that do repeat as well as showing why how it is cycling.

There are many critics of the LRC and of this cycle. I think based on surface observations, my method will have a chance to help satisfy some of the criticism as it is actual objective data used and trends that are graphically and numerically valid.

Happy New Years all, and hope that I can begin to provide some detailed forecasting that can be used by all that read.

I am revising my January forecast in light of getting all this data together. I think it can be very useful.

In a nutshell, we will be coming out of this current cold and warming up very shortly. After we warm up, expect a nice front to come through around the 9th-10th. I expect this to me mostly rain. While a nice front, the trend dictates it should not be a whole bunch of moisture. Maybe up to half an inch at best...likely less.

Jan 17th and 18th looks like a snow storm. It should be very cool and with the trend of moderate precip in this part of the cycle, perhaps 4-8 inches around the metro is possible. We will have to keep an eye on this one as it gets closer, and I will provide more detailed updates.

Last, but not least...our most active part of the cycle kicks up around the 24th...this will last for about 10 days. Expect signifcant snowfall in this time frame. While it may start as rain for a day or two, expect a plunge of colder air. This will bring some signficant accumulations to the area.

That is all for now. Please ask any questions or provide any comments you may have.

As we near the end of the spring season, I may post my research and let you all have at it.