Welcome LRC Fans! I have taken a bit of a break, but thought I would drop this out there for some thoughts/comments.
So, let me say..I have a couple of things I want to show in this blog.
I believe 2007-2008’s cycle to be 56 days.
I believe the pattern starts in late August
I believe the pattern begins to die in late July
This is a very exciting time of year for LRC analysis. This is the time where I believe one cycle ends and another begins.
Here is how I think it works…
I believe the transition to occur roughly at the mean between the summer solstice and equinox, but believe it only transitions for about two weeks in that duration. This is why I believe the pattern starts closer to the end of August. Think about it...
Look at the months this summer. June was wet, and July was partially wet. As we neared August, things began to fall apart. Granted, this is also in line with climate norms, but surely the yearly LRC also falls in line with the general observations/theories governing climate.
That said, August is the month generally with the highest average surface/upper air heights. Everything comes to a crawl in the atmosphere. Warm temps prevail, moisture begins drying up, and persistence is the norm. This would make sense based on how far away the jet is and the earth's relative position to the sun.
There just isn't much to drive any activity. So, as we begin toward the end of the summer months - more to the middle to end of August, the jet begins to start dropping again. Because of its "mini" hibernation, when it begins to drop again, things begin to happen differently.
Kinda like picking up a needle on a record and letting it fall again. It will not land in the same spot it did when it was lifted. It is new. In line with this analogy, consider the time from when the needle is lifted to when it drops again to be the transition. This does not take months. This really likely only takes a week or two at the most.
Below is a bit of analysis I have done. Let me preface what is below. The data recorded is the mean surface pressure for each day. This is numerical and quantitative. I have simply thrown the data into a graph for each 56 day cycle.
Very simple.
In addition, I have included points of interest common between each cycle. It is very clear, as the jet drops, the amplitude of readings does as well. This is consistent with temperature anomalies as well in my research.
I will not go into a lot of thoughts regarding the charts. I will let you draw your own opinions. I think they show what I assert above.
Feel free to leave a comment..I would love to know what you think.
