Dolly slammed ashore as a strong Category 1/weak Category 2 hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico a few days ago. It's eyewall passed over South Padre Island. All in all, wind reports were not that bad, but Dolly dumped a lot of rain!
So, as we watched this from the midwest, we realized there was going to be minimal impact as we were protected by a strong high pressure between us and the Gulf of Mexico. The same high pressure which steered Dolly to its landing point, was the same high pressure buffering us from direct impact as Dolly came ashore.
So, as the event came and passed, many forgot about Dolly. She just ran out of steam as she came inland and generally became stagnant as she was trapped. Many wanted to stop talking about Dolly as it didn't seem relevant to this area. Afterall, we were caught in no man's land between a NW flow coming from a stronger than normal upper level low in the Great Lakes and that same high pressure referenced above.
This brought quite the forecasting nightmare with huge temperature gradients through the area and MCS potential. So, we forgot about Dolly.
Sheeeeeeee'sssss back! The HPC is still talking about her....
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/tcpat4.html
You see, she never left..but has been..well, just hanging out waiting for the high pressure to move. Well, it has allowed Dolly to begin moving now. We caught some of her moisture in the last day or two as it revolved around the parameter of the high pressure and streamed through this area.
Dewpoints in the mid 70s is tropical..and was partially due to Dolly's blowoff. So, on Tuesday, the vorticity that is Dolly will introduce herself to this area. It is quite possible that the remains will come right over KC, and should bring some rain with her.
It took awhile, and most people took their eyes of her, but it is rare for a hurricane to come ashore in the Gulf that does not directly or indirectly affect the weather in Kansas City.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Dolly - Is that you?
