Another LRC observation - cool!

Sometimes truth is stranger than fiction. As I often reflect and study current patterns, I am left sometimes amazed with some of the things I run into. I am going to go into something I noticed yesterday…

Everyone knows I am a strong proponent of a cyclical pattern that recurs in a standard timeframe. This means we will see similar patterns come back time and time again over the course of a year.

That said, finding it, measuring it, and knowing what to do with it is a great challenge. In thinking ahead for the next forecast contest for Labor Day, I got to thinking…

Because of the ever changing jet location, using previous cycles especially nearer to summer becomes problematic with the quick retreat of the jet. So, what makes sense is to compare this cycle to a previous one with a similar jet. Pretty straight forward stuff. So going back many cycles, we get back to August 7th. Perhaps the very first week of this year’s cycle!

July 8th equates to August 7th – 6 cycles back. The below is from August 8th [allowing one day variance over nearly a year’s time]

I like to refer to the KSHB achieved blogs for descriptions of weather that day and for upcoming events.

Here is an excerpt of what was written that day on August 8th.

“…This morning was a fascinating weather morning. Flooding was occurring over parts of northwest Missouri as the day started with very heavy rain for some of you up there. A series of outflow boundaries moved through Kansas City as the past few hours went by. We had a nice easterly breeze blowing for a while. Thunderstorms developed and dumped some very heavy rain at KCI airport, Liberty, the Plaza, Leavenworth, and a few other spots but it didn't last very long…. “

“…We have a heat wave problem for next week. So, hopefully we will get some more rain tonight before the heat builds back in stronger. Let's begin with the weak cold front moving our way. Weak is an understatement, but it could be just enough to bring us some thunderstorms overnight into Thursday morning, somewhat like today. Below, you can see the very weak cold front forecast for early Thursday morning at 7 AM…”

“…Look at the HUGE anticyclone forecast to be over the Kansas/Oklahoma border by Monday. The circle near the KS/OK border is a 600 circle. This does not happen very often. WOW! This is a strong anticyclone and, if it does form, it will have to go above 100 degrees. Hopefully it will break down.”

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2007/08/08/1871293.aspx

Any of this sound familiar to what happened yesterday?

Let’s look at each of the above statements and compare it to what happened yesterday and what will happen next week.

Lets start with the first statement [from August 8th] and how it compared to what happened yesterday.

“…This morning was a fascinating weather morning. Flooding was occurring over parts of northwest Missouri as the day started with very heavy rain for some of you up there. A series of outflow boundaries moved through Kansas City as the past few hours went by. We had a nice easterly breeze blowing for a while. Thunderstorms developed and dumped some very heavy rain at KCI airport, Liberty, the Plaza, Leavenworth, and a few other spots but it didn't last very long…. “


From the NWS Summary -

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=eax&product=RWS&issuedby=eax


“HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM YESTERDAY WERE MOSTLY ALONG THEMISSOURI RIVER AND TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE OVER OVER AN INCH OFRAINFALL FELL. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WAS AT INDEPENDENCE MISSOURI...WITH ONE INCH AND 35 HUNDREDTHS...WHILE HILLSDALE LAKE HAD ONE INCHAND 58 HUNDREDTHS. OTHERWISE RAINFALL TOTALS VARIED FROM A TENTH OF AN INCH”

From the NWS forecast discussion at 3:15 AM yesterday. –

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=7&glossary=1

“THIS CONVECTION HAS PLUNGED SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS OF315 AM CDT...LOOPS OF COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOW ONE SUCH BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED FROM NEAR EMPORIA THROUGH NORTH KC AND ON EAST TOWARDS MACON. WHILE THIS BOUNDARY IS LIKELY BECOMING VERY
DIFFUSE IN ITS MATURE STAGE...”

Easterly breeze? Noon-5PM.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w3=sfcwind&AheadHour=0&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=39.15920&textField2=-94.48364&site=eax

Dumped but didn’t last long?

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/07/09/3185337.aspx

“The rainfall rates were close to 4 inches per hour, and if this would have continued for even just one more half hour there would have been a significant flash flood yesterday. “

Freaked out yet?

Let’s go to the second statement [From August 8th looking forward]–

“…We have a heat wave problem for next week. So, hopefully we will get some more rain tonight before the heat builds back in stronger. Let's begin with the weak cold front moving our way. Weak is an understatement, but it could be just enough to bring us some thunderstorms overnight into Thursday morning...”


Heat wave problem – as the jet is not quite as far north as August 7th of last year, it won’t be a heat wave, but we do have a warming trend for next week. I will show more on this in just a bit.

Weak cold front? Some thunderstorms overnight into Wednesday morning?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaa_20080708.gif

“THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MO RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA BY MID
WEDNESDAY MORNING.”

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=3&glossary=1

And this… Here is for the third statement –

“…Look at the HUGE anticyclone forecast to be over the Kansas/Oklahoma border by Monday. The circle near the KS/OK border is a 600 circle. This does not happen very often. WOW! This is a strong anticyclone and, if it does form, it will have to go above 100 degrees. Hopefully it will break down.”

So…this would translate to Sunday/Monday coming up. Let’s go to the models….

While not a heat wave, we do see central ridging with some decent heights early next week. The 588 dm line is nudging up into Central Oklahoma. Again, not near as strong as the 600 dm anticyclone mentioned above, still decent ridging for the central CONUS.

Fortunately, this is early July and not early August or this would be happening again. I am happy to take the low 90s!

All this points to much of what I have discussed regarding the patterns as defined by the LRC in previous blogs. It seems that the more I look, the more I research, the more I do loops and the more I look at surface trends there is definitely something there.

Am I the only one that finds this fascinating that within the same LRC that events happen so similarly when taking into account the relative jet location?

This doesn’t prove anything or is it intended to, but I find it so interesting the many different ways the recurring pattern may materialize and show itself.

We just have to open our eyes.