Thursday's setup and Friday

Ok…so, I think I am done with the analysis for Thurs/Fri as it relates to this area.

The main show for severe weather is Thursday night. As it relates to the 300-950 levels, all looks good. I am concerned a bit with the cap through the day, but the approaching upper air forcing will pop it.

Not much will initiative until after 7PM in this area. Main mode would be supercellular. Good helicity, but concerned a bit about the slightly elevated LCL levels being in the 800s. Also, 0-6km bulk sheer is a bit off, but the effective bulk sheer is more than adequate.

Any tornadic activity between Thurs/Fri would be on Thurs night for this area. Friday looks mainly like a rain day with largely a washed out frontal boundary with little surface convergence left. Thunderstorms may occur early Friday with the remaining bit of convergence but will wash out Friday afternoon/night.

This is what I think I see right now at a high level..and even this is a bit sketchy with the prevalence of the many MCSs lately. Any type of microscale upheaval such as residual outflow boundaries could greatly skew the forecast.