Summer pattern - watch the West

Folks,

If you have been following the pattern at all this year and reading what I have put out, then it should be no surprise now that we are transferring to the central troughing mode.

We are not quite there yet, but there will be more and more signs to it in the upcoming week. This will...probably bring more rain/severe weather...

But - these should be a bit more quick moving thus not dumping rain over days. The only caveat to that is if the cold air isn't quite strong enough, it could leave washed out boundaries in this area which won't move much. This would tend to be at the tails of the fronts generally in the KS/MO/NE/IA areas.

Obviously, moisture isn't a problem these days, so any residual warm front, stationary front or boundary will serve as a focusing point for prolonged rain.

Back to the pattern. We should enjoy this NW flow for about a week or so. This should end roughly around the first week of July. Then...we get one last chance of the western trough.

Not sure how strong it will be, but it will dictate how this summer will be remembered. If it is strong enough to boot out the seasonal high pressure in the desert, this summer may be somewhat cool and wet.

The race is on. If the high can establish in the next two weeks or so, and with the retreating jet and cold air, the trough may be weak or not set up at all.

My bet is on the latter thought. We have seen quite a bit of blocking this season, and there is no reason why with the season norm that the desert high pressure will not form leaving the HLH pattern as normal for summer.

The next two weeks will be the key. If the western trough does not set up, that leaves the rest of July and into August to be rather warm and more on the dry side.