All Wet

Interesting trend. No doubt, it has been very wet lately. Afterall, we have the media telling us this, we see Iowa under water, and much printed about just how much water there has been recently.

How wet is wet, and how lately is lately? If someone says its been wet over and over, does it begin to seem true?

Curiosity...boy..it sure seems like it has been wet this summer, but really...has it? Below is series of maps taken from http://water.noaa.gov. These images show the rainfall anomalies. The first map is for the last 30 days in the area.



Wow, no doubt, much of the area shown in the darker colors are 5-6 inches over average. Even the greens are 3 inches over! This time span would be from May 21st to June 21st. In this time frame, you have a sliver of Spring and the first 21 days of meteorological summer.

Very wet start to the summer...or...has it? The next image is the same as the above, but only for the last 14 days.



Well. Kinda tough to say. Some areas up north are still hit hard. Perhaps still 6 inches over average. Closer to the metro, we have quite a diversity. We see areas with gray to light blue. Gray is average. Light blue is 3 inches over. The greatest color is greenish. For that, it is 1-2 inches over.

Based on the difference between the first two maps, I would have to think that for June, the majority of the rain must have been in the last week of Spring into the first week of Summer.

Certainly, the second week wasn't too abnormal. So, that brings us to the third week of June, or just the last week. Certainly, this has been wetter. It just has to, right? This will certainly show how wet this month has been since the second week wasn't so extreme.



Um...well. Hmmm. Gray is normal. Or zero difference from norm. Beige..well..that is up to an inch below normal.

There is a couple of things to derive from this.

First, no doubt..the first week of June was WET. And it was wet in a widespread pattern. Much like all this data shows, it is pretty widespread in the area from a trending perspective.

Second, the second week began trending dryer, and closer to normal. Still above, but much less coverage of high anomalies.

Third, the third week was rather normal or even a bit dry. We see a trend from very wet to a bit on the dry side. This coincides with the trend from a more zonal and SW flow into the NW flow we are in now.

Guess what, we will be in the NW flow through nearly the end of the month. The forth week of June will not be overly wet. In fact, it may be dry enough to offset the first week.

So, what does this mean? It tells us two things. First, anyway you look at it, regardless of the anomalies, many areas will be over average in rainfall near the metro for June. On paper, it will prove out to be wetter than average.

But, what the view of the anomalies show, is that there is a trend...and this trend is that things are quickly drying up. It also shows that this NW flow is the rainfall killer for this area.

If...if you buy the CPC, it suggests that the NW flow will continue for the majority of July based on how the temperature contrasts are shaded around where a Great Lakes Low would be in addition to the warmer temps where the SW High would form. This would mean a NW flow for us.

Based on that...its gonna be dry. However, I am watching for the SW troughing...models hint at it...but how will it work this late in the season with the seasonal SW High wanting to be there?

For sure, with the weak flow and seasonal norms, if the SW flow does set up, it won't be as strong or long lasting. At its best, in this year's pattern, it has only lasted for about 10 days.

I am not thinking this last hurrah will be enough to bring alot of rainfall to the area. Maybe one or two shots....

I think July is going to be above average in temps and below or normal rainfall. I would lean to below average. August will likely be the same in my opinion. Oddly, this summer may end up above average temps and below average for rainfall.

Seems odd considering how "wet" it has been, doesn't it?