So, as I have been mentioning, as soon as this omega block breaks down, we should be back in business again.
Well..Sunday it erodes, and severe potential arrives on Monday with the vorticity ejecting to our NW [as mentioned in previous entries].
So, here is the map drawn up for Monday evening. Timing will be everything. If it slows down, this becomes less of a threat as surface convection will be at its least.
If it speeds up, we will have more to work with, but we get cap and moisture return. We will have to monitor..
Here is the map..
Here is the forecast sounding params...
Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5761.09 m
Freezing level: 604.33 mb = 4353.76 m = 14283.83 ft
Wetbulb zero: 630.25 mb = 4012.12 m = 13162.96 ft
Precipitable water: 1.51 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 54.53 %
Est. max temperature: 33.88 C = 92.98 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 946.39 mb = 560.10 m = 1837.57 ft
T: 23.15 C700-500
lapse rate: 7.34 C/km
ThetaE index: 23.63 C
Layer 850.0- 500.0 mbConv cond level (CCL): 748.83 mb = 2583.79 m = 8476.90 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 14.17 g/kg Conv temperature: 37.44 C = 99.40 F
Cap Strength: 4.49 C
Lifted Index: -4.40 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms probable
Lifted Index @300 mb: -3.71 C
Lifted Index @700 mb: 1.34 C
Showalter Index: -2.93 C Risk: Severe thunderstorms possible
Total Totals Index: 52.06 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms
Vertical Totals Index: 30.11 C Cross Totals Index: 21.95 C
K Index: 35.21 Risk: > 80 % chance of thunderstorms
Sweat Index: 257.53 Risk: None
Energy Index: -3.41 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable
Parcel IndicesParcel: using 100 mb layerCAPE (B+): 1316.34 J/kgMax Up Vert Vel: 51.31 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-): 245.88 J/kg
Cap Strength: 4.49 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 856.88 mb = 1428.40 m = 4686.30 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC): 661.88 mb = 3612.99 m = 11853.51 ft
Equ Level (EL): 181.88 mb = 12876.81 m = 42246.22 ft
B at Equ Level: 1295.11 J/kg
Max Parcel Lev (MPL): 111.88 mb = 15830.69 m = 51937.32 ft
Lets watch this scenerio, and capping..seems moisture will be fine in the low to mid 60s.
