Tricky tricky tricky

The models and my based analysis tell me that nothing much will happen in this area in the next few days regarding severe weather.

Cycle analysis tells me that the potential is there from previous cycles.

Now in looking at some composites - it seems we are in the supercell and cravenbrooks targets in KS for the next few days.

This is soooo close to being a real bad situation, and when/how the ULL breaks out over the eroding ridge will tell the whole story.

If we get vorts spitting off, we will see MCS type of events that could spawn severe weather. If we see all the energy release more at one type, I think it largely misses us to the NW.

Its too close to call. Isolated large rain totals should be expected, while others get completely missed.

Sounds like late Spring in Kansas City, doesn't it? As a side note, looking at the analysis - I want to pray in advance for those in S/SW S.Central KS and N. Oklahoma for tomorrow...it could be pretty wicked on Thursday for them.