RECAP

Recap –

Sunday – I provided the setup. 96 hr. advanced warning. Look at the previous blog for the surface map drawn. Not sure I could have been any closer with timing and location.

Tuesday – I provided details.

“I think initiation starts about 21Z-0Z Thurs/Fri. I believe it will initiate just a hair to our west...not much. Maybe Lawrenceish or just north down to around Ottawa. These will be just the beginning with discrete cells filling into a line closer to 0Z. I think KC will catch the storms around 23-01Z. I believe they will gain strength as they pass. I think it may come all together in a line around Joplin up to Chilicothe. I think before they line up, they may be quasi supercellular, but would want to come together on the frontal boundary.”

Initiation was dead on. Perfect. The first storms along the dryline started at about 6PM in a line nearly right down I-35. They were supercellular and began lining up on the dryline.

They maintained peak strength right over the metro area.

This was perfect for the first pass. For the storms along the frontal boundary, we received the bow echo early morning, as it began to fill linear down south along the front. This took place almost perfectly around Chill down to Joplin, and continues to this time.

I am very happy with this forecast. Concerns about moisture and cap were mentioned, but ultimately resolved well ahead of initiation. Moisture was shallow, but enough for SCAPE and the cap was removed by the combo of CAPE and forcing.

All said, exciting storms, not too much damage and a great learning and verification exercise.