So...the ridge will break down, the energy from the ULL leaks out to the NW..and we end up with a frontal system with the surface low much to the north.
What does this mean? Not too much...for a short time, we will be in a the warm sector of the storm, but without much upper air support if any, it will be hard to get any type of large scale favorability for severe weather.
Sure, isolated storms could briefly hit severe limits and as the front comes down on Monday/Tues, we could see some linear/MCS type events..but really nothing like western KS has seen earlier this week or other set ups we have had that had more potential.
I don't see a whole lot left out there in the models after this front. I see a pretty typical summer setup building. High pressure to the SW, ridging over the central plains, and a flat jet stream up near the Canada border.
Blah. I think summer is going to quickly arrive, and I am NOT sold on a cool and wet summer at this point.
One thing of interest, the GFS wants to paint a depression or wave in the Gulf starting toward the end of next week and keeps it in frame through the duration of the model run progressing to the coast.
Who knows..maybe its time now for the tropics to get busy?
Friday, May 23, 2008
Long Range Model Analysis
