Friday Night Severe UPDATED

Friday Night Severe UPDATE.-

Seems should anything fire, it will be severe in the area. Huge CAPE values {4K+}, very light cap, and decent sheer…

IF they fire, which I expect they will…they will be big hail and wind producers. I don’t expect tornados as the lower wind hodographs are weak and 0-1KM helicity is fairly weak.

The only wildcard left is where the outflow boundaries will reside after the MCS tonight.

The 3PM forecast discussion for the NWS has a very good depiction of the setup…

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

If the outflow boundary is positioned such as enhancing development in this region, it would help mainly with lower level sheer and I would expect the MDT risk to shift west to include the metro.

At this point, observational data is most useful and model data will lose much value for tomorrow…