360 Concept Forecast Part 2(a) of 3

Ok…you have had a day to do your own analysis as to the accuracy or lack of accuracy regarding this concept of forecasting. Below I will go through my own grading and provide proof and critique these forecasts. After the critique of September and October, I will explain a bit more about the method of this concept and provide some food for thought. Let’s get to the meat of this now, shall we?

September

Sept 11th - This will be a strong front that likely could produce some action from MN all the way down to TX.

Sept. 17th - This will be a trough sliding down a ridge in the west coming from the SW that may clip us or actually produce more of the activity just east of us.

From the 7th until the 20th I expect to see several one maybe two times we see morning lows dip into the upper 40s [with one chance with one of these strong fronts of a possible [frost] for one night], and several days in the 60s. I don't anticipate seeing more than maybe 2 or 3 days in this timeframe that get much above 90.

I expect to see a signficant warm up one last time at the end of September [21st-30th] with some potential to get upper 80s maybe into the 90s.

Last week of September, expect much above average high temps. Possible run at some records.

Sept 30th, strong cold front that will end this week of high temps, bringing temps about 30 degrees cooler. This front may suprise as it may not produce much rain if any.

September Analysis point by point

Sept 11th. This event starting on the 9th lasting through the 11th day produced an event bringing rain to the KC area [providing just a trace of rain at KCI on the 10th]. Included below is the view that day per the HPC




Here is a sample of the verbiage from the HPC regarding this event.

“STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 1 FOR CENTRAL U.S. HEAVY RAINFALL
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 CDT SAT SEP 9 2007

...A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN TEXAS HAS
BEEN THE FOCUS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...”

So, I will deem this first event – verified.


Sept. 17th – I was 24hrs off on this one. It was September 18th. As surface low formed in SW KS and slid up the frontal boundary as warm moist tropical air brought widespread rain to the area. Amounts were varied as the south east side of the metro received from .2 - .35 or so inches up to 1 – 1.5 inches the further north and west of the metro. Even KCI finally got some! KC really didn’t get clipped though the SE side was quite a bit less. There was far less activity to the east of us. I missed on that one.



So, I will deem this second event – mainly verified.

Ok..I am going to break this next one into chunks. This data is from KCI

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=eax

From the 7th until the 20th I expect to see several one maybe two times we see morning lows dip into the upper 40s [with one chance with one of these strong fronts of a possible [frost] for one night]…

Sept 11th was 48 degrees
Sept 14th was 47 degrees
Sept 15th was 41 degrees

On the 15th, the low was 37 degrees at St. Joseph. There was light frost reported in low lying areas. Per the surface maps, this was as result of a high pressure in the upper Midwest with light winds reported at the surface.

So, I will deem this part of the forecast mainly verified. Since it was not a cold front that brought on the light frost, I cannot count this as correct, but the rest was.

…and several days in the 60s. I don't anticipate seeing more than maybe 2 or 3 days in this timeframe that get much above 90.

Sept 14th was 67
Sept 15th was 64

Sept 17th was 88
Sept 18th was 88
Sept 20th was 88

Other locations in the metro such as downtown did break 90 on 18th.

So, I will deem this part of the forecast verified.

Ok..here is the next chunk..

“I expect to see a signficant warm up one last time at the end of September [21st-30th] with some potential to get upper 80s maybe into the 90s.”

The mean temperature for this stretch was 7.72 degrees above normal. All but 3 days of this stretch were in the mid to upper 80s with the 21st recording 90.

This part of the forecast is verified.

And last but not least for September,

“Sept 30th, strong cold front that will end this week of high temps, bringing temps about 30 degrees cooler. This front may suprise as it may not produce much rain if any.”

Below is the map for the 30th. The front passed through during that day.




Remember the mean temps for the week before were 7.72 degrees above normal. The three days following the 20th were 2.6 degrees above normal. It did warm back up after those three days but dropped back down a few days later and stayed down. It did not rain on the 30th or 1st at KCI.

This mostly verified, though the front was still not as strong as I anticipated as the high temps between the 30th and the 1st was only 7 degrees. Not 30.

All in all for September, I think I graded rather well. Perhaps a B or B- factoring in seasonal norms for September. Keep this in mind, these forecasts were made 2-4 weeks in advance for the following month without any model data. I will explain more in the Part 3 how this was done. Consider the following. A grade of B or B- equates to 80% correct. That is 4 out of 5. I would challenge any local meteorologist to make monthly forecast weeks in advance using ANY method to get 4 out of 5.



Next up is October's grade....this will come in the next blog entry. Again, thanks for reading..and hope this is interesting.

360 Concept Forecast Part 1 of 3

Ok, so I have explained the LRC high level in a nutshell as I know it. There is more detail, but for the sake of this blog entry, it won't be necessary. Knowing that the LRC cycles in regular intervals, for this year, I decided to try a different approach.

With this blog series, first, I am going to post the forecasts I have made based on this concept. I will let you all review my forecasts and determine the validity. The second blog in the series will be my own critique and thoughts on my forecasts with this method, and the third blog will be a more detailed explanation of how this concept works and its viability.

Each of these forecasts were made for the following month anywhere between 2-4 weeks in advance. There is no other data used other than data defined later in the 3rd blog. I have email records of inital creation to verify the validity of the dates forecasts were made.

I thought about this concept in mid August as the old LRC cycle was faint and the "chaos" time of the new LRC defintion began. I don't accept that there should be such as gap in cycles as defined by the LRC, so using some of the same principles, I looked for other methods and stumbled on this. I tested it with a few short term guesses that seemed to verify. I then made my first monthly forecast for September. Below is what was submitted.

Sept 11th - This will be a strong front that likely could produce some action from MN all the way down to TX.

Sept. 17th - This will be a trough sliding down a ridge in the west coming from the SW that may clip us or actually produce more of the activity just east of us.

From the 7th until the 20th I expect to see several one maybe two times we see morning lows dip into the upper 40s [with one chance with one of these strong fronts of a possible [frost] for one night], and several days in the 60s. I don't anticipate seeing more than maybe 2 or 3 days in this timeframe that get much above 90.

I expect to see a signficant warm up one last time at the end of September [21st-30th] with some potential to get upper 80s maybe into the 90s.

Here is October's


Last week of September, expect much above average high temps. Possible run at some records.

Sept 30th, strong cold front that will end this week of high temps, bringing temps about 30 degrees cooler. This front may suprise as it may not produce much rain if any.

October seems to set up much like last year and in a typical manner with fronts coming every 3-5 days. Temps will at months end trend a hair above average.

The middle of the month from about the 7th to the 16th will bring a bit of [unseasonable?] cold air with the first chance of a freeze on the 7th.

This month will have several fronts with huge temp swings. If [these fronts] catch any moisture at all..these will be possibly severe.

The end of the month ends somewhat normal with temps.

The key storm to watch in October will be that on the 16th, which will be the first major polar push of the season. The second storm will be on the 21st. These storms are more than the garden variety front that we should expect in October.

And here is November's

Very dry month, should have a streak of dry days into the teens without significant rain.

Nov 5th event. [I will leave this one in, though I don’t have much to say about it]

Nov 10th event – looks impressive from the models leading up, but largely [is a bust] in the KC viewing area as it moves away from KC.

Mid Month warm-up into 60s for a few days between the 15th and the 20th.

Nov. 23rd First part of a week of big weather. This will be a front that brings the cold air in place. Possibily arctic. Should see a stretch of a few days with very cold weather.

Nov. 25th. ULL arrives and gives some nice precipitation, but somewhat misses some of the metro as it slides just far enough south the split the viewing area. If cold air remains from the 23rd storm, we should get some nice snow, and the first measurable snow of the season.

I will have the next blog of the series up in a day or two. As you can see above, I tried to be specific with some dates to help provide some objectivity.

What do you think?

LRC – Fact or fiction

For some of us in the KC area that follow a local weather blog from KSHB, we have heard about a theory from Gary Lezak that claims each year there is a recurring weather cycle. Some of the basic principles are:

1) The weather pattern sets up between October 1st and November 10th

2) This unique weather pattern then begins cycling and continues through winter, spring, and into summer.

Gary claims that in early fall, he looks for longwaves and large scale entity [High and Low pressures/troughs/etc] cycles. He looks at the 500mb level. Gary has been tracking this for many years, but only recently has gained traction in a broader sense. He has presented this theory twice that I am aware of at weather conferences in Washington DC, and most recently Reno NV..

Ok, so this is the background. In my experience in working this theory since 2005, I have a few observations:

1. It seems the LRC is maintained at the 500mb level for documentation, but I often have a hard time seeing it at this level. It seems that entities compared from cycle to cycle can vary by hundreds of miles and in intensity. While I can see general trends, it’s hard to make a definitive statement in this level of analysis.

2. As the cycle plays out, it seems the legitimacy of the LRC gets played out at the surface level, not the 500mb level. This is to say that specific storm events within a cycle are what seem to be communicated from a surface perspective independent of the actual documentation of the cycle at the 500mb level. In the last year as example, more was made of a certain storm that seemed to cycle within the LRC opposed to the upper level correlation. This inconsistency makes it difficult for those observing/verifying to know exactly what is being measured.

The theory is certainly gaining traction…here is recent link from some others now watching this evolve…

http://www.citynews.ca/blogs/citynewsweather_15856.aspx

It will take time..but with more and more focus, more definitive proof needs to come out soon….

More to come on what I think can be tracked at the surface using some LRC principles.

Welcome!

Finally..it has happened! I have found time to create a spot for those who would like to learn, discuss, and share ideas regarding Meteorology, Kansas City and surrounding areas' weather, and ideas for a bunch more things.

I want to discuss the LRC - is it real, is it not, or is this the best thing since sliced bread?

I want to discuss some of the concepts I have derived from the LRC, such as the 360 concept.

I want to discuss chase accounts, document events, and even touch on the tropics when topical.

This will be a work in progress. Over time, this blog will grow to include many other links that are of use as well as other blogs that talk about similar things.

I expect to have new entries several times a week or more often if it warrants. Please take time to respond back and let me know your thoughts!

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